Macron’s Legacy and the Future of the Fifth Republic: Is France Headed for Constitutional Reform in 2025?

Irion Dekov
2 days ago
5 min read

Author: Hugo Demay

A Reformist President in a Divided Nation

With term-limited President Emmanuel Macron on the eve of the conclusion of his second and last mandate, France is at the political crossroads. Having framed Macron's presidency as much in controversy as in reform, the bigger question over the country is how well the Fifth Republic born in 1958 is still fit for purpose.

Recent political turbulence, the rise of the populist tide, and the acrid arguments over the scope of presidential powers have kindled popular debate over a potential evolution toward the Sixth Republic. This article considers Macron's legacy, the strain put on France's current semi-presidential system, and the potential of 2025 as a tipping point for a constitutionally driven change.

Macron’s Political Impact: Reformist or Disruptor?

In 2017, Emmanuel Macron rose to power as a centrist reformer who would help bring the institutional and political fabric of France up to date. His party, formed as La République En Marche, disrupted the established party system and brought with it the promise of a new form of government. Macron pushed through over the course of his two terms a sweeping series of reforms ranging from pension systems and the labor code to schools and green energy shifts.

These reforms consistently spurred popular resistance. The 2018–2019 Yellow Vest protests and more recent 2023–2024 pension reform confrontations bear witness to how top-down decision-making, even in attempts to modernize, can recoil in the face of a void of democratic debate. Macron has positioned himself as a staunch supporter of the European Union and of international multilateralism.

His leadership style domestically, however, has been criticized as too vertical with insufficient debate and consultation, which corresponds to a direct criticism of the institutional architecture of the Fifth Republic.

The Fifth Republic: Strengths and Structural Flaws

Established by Charles de Gaulle in 1958 to stabilize France from decades of parliamentary turbulence, the Fifth Republic is a semi-presidential system that confers significant executive power on the president, who is both president of the Republic and, in practice, head of the government.

It served well through the times of political consensus but seems increasingly inappropriate to cope with the fragmented party system of the time. Critics of the system claim that the system over-concentrates power in the president's hands, thereby weakening parliamentary control and democratic accountability. Others perceive that the system represses pluralism, especially if the president can dissolve the National Assembly in the event of political crisis and make decisions by decree.

Macron's use of Article 49.3 of the constitution to push a bill through without a vote in parliament has set a stark example for proponents of change. It was invoked repeatedly in 2023, often to push through unpopular pension reforms, which further eroded popular trust.

Rising Political Polarization: Far Right and Left-Wing Momentum

Macron's center-right coalition is fragmenting, and the politics of France is in the process of a major realignment. Marine Le Pen's far-right Rassemblement National (RN) continues to make electoral inroads, as well as left-wing coalitions like NUPES (New Ecological and Social Popular Union), which also gain a strong support base among disillusioned voters. It generates institutional deadlock and undermines the current institutional system's legitimacy and functioning.

In a 2024 poll conducted by the IFOP, 61% of the French believe the political system "has to be deeply reformed." With the established parties in disarray and extremist movements becoming more prominent, the threat of democratic decay or alternatively democratic change is becoming a stark reality.

Is a Sixth Republic a Real Possibility?

There have also been many proposals for a Sixth Republic in recent decades, including from politicians like Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the Left. Their supporters envision a more parliamentary model that would minimize the powers of the president and maximize popular participation. There is yet no official Sixth Republic roadmap, but the following factors make a more probable constitutional reform in 2025:

Public Support: The public increasingly calls for democratic renewal. According to a 2023 CEVIPOF survey, over 70% of citizens say they feel disconnected from political elites.
Political Realignment: In the event of a post-2027 presidential elections government where no majority is apparent, there would have to be institutional change to avoid a gridlock scenario.
International Trends: Across Europe, states are reassessing the power of the executives and shifting toward more inclusive systems of government. France is no exception to this trend of institutional introspection.

There are still formidable legal and political barriers. Constitutional change would need the consensus of a supermajority in Parliament or a referendum nationwide, both of which are extremely uphill struggles in a polarized climate.

Macron’s Lasting Influence on the Debate

While Macron himself has not yet voiced the call for constitutional reforms explicitly, his presidency itself can indirectly become an agent for change. His power concentration and frequent use of the mechanisms of the executive have put the vulnerabilities of the Fifth Republic increasingly in the limelight.

In addition, Macron's "start-up nation" dreams and reconfigured European sovereignty have the potential to leave a double-edged heritage admired as visionary but criticized as not grounded in participation politics. Macron's presidency would there by become synonymous with the term that uncovered the need for more democratic renewal, even if he did not take the steps.

Conclusion: A Critical Crossroads

With France on the eve of 2025, the country is faced with a juncture. The debate over the Fifth Republic is no longer the preserve of political and intellectual theorists alone. It has entered public discourse. Emmanuel Macron's legacy, driven by the fervor of reforms and institutional blockages, has brought with it a new emphasis on the deficiencies of the current political system.

There is no guarantee that France will see a Sixth Republic, but no one can be in doubt about the appetite for systemic change. With growing institutional fatigue, political polarization, and popular frustration, the only question is no longer whether the constitution can be altered but whether it is unavoidable. The next chapter of French politics is more likely to be the country's most revolutionary in recent times.