Catching the Peak: How to Spot Bitcoin Tops Using the Pi Cycle Indicator
- giuliapedrinivisio
- Jul 22
- 4 min read
Updated: Aug 5
Author: Rachel Hade
If you’ve ever been caught buying bitcoin near the top, you know the sinking feeling that follows…
It’s market cycles are legendary for their euphoric highs and their brutal crashes. Timing the top can mean the difference between life-changing gains and years of holding through a downturn.
What is the Pi Cycle Indicator?
It is the one tool that can show surprising accuracy over multiple cycles. A go-to reference for Bitcoin market watchers looking to spot potential peaks before it’s too late.
It was popularized by analyst Philip Swift, built on a surprisingly straightforward concept, being to track the interaction between moving averages. There are two!
111-day moving average (111DMA): Fast moving, quick reactive to price movements
2x the 350-day moving average (2x350DMA): Smoothed out and much slower average that reflects long term trends.
When 111DMA crosses above the 2x350DMA, the indicator signals that Bitcoin may be reaching a market cycle top.
Why is it called the ‘Pi’ Cycle Indicator?
The ratio of 350 to 111 is approximately 3.153 which is very close to the mathematical constant π (pi ≈ 3.141) – hence why they called it ‘pi cycle indicator’
Why it works!
A fraction of its strength lies in the reflection of market psychology. Retail investors pile in late, driven by FOMO (fear of missing out), while smart money starts to take profits. Working because it captures movements when Bitcoin’s price is rising too fast to be sustainable, comparing the 111DMA (fast average) with the 2x350DMA (slow moving average).
When the fast crosses above the slow it signals market overheating. This typically happens near the end of bull runs. That crossover marks a shift in momentum and psychology – just as the smart money starts existing. Traders react to the signal, which helps form a top, while it’s not perfect, the indicator’s consistent accuracy and simplicity make it a valuable warning tool.
Limitations and Risks
The Pi Cycle is best seen not as a sell trigger, but as a strong warning sign to consider de-risking and evaluate risk exposure.
Lagging – The crossover can occur after the price has already begun to falter
Miss Complex Cycles – The market is not always predictable, anything can happen
Does Not Predict Bottoms – Pi Cycle is a top only tool
Market Evolution – Bitcoin EFT flows or institutional adoption reduces effectiveness of past models
Macro Shocks – regulatory news or geopolitical events can invalidate technical signals
Don’t Rely on the Pi Cycle Alone!
It is a useful tool but it shouldn’t be the only reason you decide to sell or change your strategy. No indicator is 100% accurate. Sometimes it might give a signal a bit too early/late or even miss an event due to unexpected news or global shocks.
Smart investors don’t act based on just one signal, they look at multiple factors, which we call confluence.
Some Examples,
MACD Crossovers – A bearish crossover near a Pi signal can reinforce caution
Momentum Indicators – Relative Strength Index (RSI) in overbought territory adds conviction.
On-chain signals – Look for alignment with SOPR, NUPL, and whale wallet movements
Why it Compliments Bitcoin
It was specifically designed for Bitcoin, in which it has proven to be the most effective for with its unique clinical behaviours.
Strong, repeatable boom to bust cycles: Bitcoin has historically followed clear market cycles driven by having events and speculative phases
Retail driven price action: The psychological behaviour of Bitcoin investors has been relatively consistent, making moving average crossovers meaningful
High volatility: Makes tops more explosive and detectable via momentum-based tools
Historical Accuracy
The Pi Cycle Indicator’s appeal comes from its track record. It has accurately marked or preceded Bitcoin’s major tops in the following years.
What we see!
The 111DMA is rising: Indicates momentum is building, and if price continues climbing/stays high = the red line will catch up.
The 2×350DMA is rising slower: As it’s based on long-term average behaviour.
My prediction: Based on the current slope and momentum a crossover might occur between late Q3 to early Q4 2025.
To Conclude
Ride the Wave but Don’t Get Wrecked!
Timing the top in crypto is difficult, but with tools like the Pi Cycle Indicator offer a valuable edge. With its elegant simplicity and historical accuracy it reminds me of a weather siren before a Bitcoin storm - not perfect, but often right when it matters most.
Good Luck Traders!
You can read also about:
Reference List:
Cryptocurrency Prices, Charts And Market Capitalizations | CoinMarketCap
Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator: Master Market Timing with 85% Historical Accuracy
What is Pi Cycle Top Indicator and How Accurate Is It for Predicting Bitcoin's Market Peaks?
What Does The Symbol Pi Mean And Why It’s Essential In Math And Everyday Life [Explained!]
Comments